Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.448463 1.526704 1.608007 1.699006 1.798270 1.903547 2.024015
2025-11-16 1.311434 1.419211 1.535964 1.672601 1.829112 2.003991 2.215888
2025-11-23 1.235559 1.361203 1.501255 1.670394 1.871123 2.104335 2.399726
2025-11-30 1.185296 1.324803 1.483972 1.681291 1.922627 2.212717 2.595063
2025-12-07 1.127679 1.274498 1.445068 1.660931 1.931422 2.265760 2.721431
2025-12-14 1.071957 1.222474 1.399935 1.628379 1.920501 2.290263 2.809111
2025-12-21 1.030345 1.184808 1.369428 1.610912 1.925716 2.333434 2.922168
2025-12-28 1.008726 1.170054 1.365666 1.625909 1.972280 2.432281 3.118105
2026-01-04 0.981458 1.146738 1.349584 1.623383 1.994382 2.498048 3.270770
2026-01-11 0.965026 1.136038 1.348569 1.639822 2.042036 2.601156 3.486325
2026-01-18 0.942248 1.116168 1.334590 1.637763 2.063270 2.667003 3.649642
2026-01-25 0.922288 1.099027 1.323221 1.638258 2.087434 2.737741 3.826032
2026-02-01 0.892802 1.069140 1.294698 1.614937 2.077659 2.759265 3.927927
2026-02-08 0.864868 1.040435 1.266755 1.591202 2.065954 2.776942 4.025031
2026-02-15 0.846923 1.024216 1.254819 1.589140 2.085628 2.843893 4.213316
2026-02-22 0.834567 1.014912 1.251729 1.599223 2.123601 2.941878 4.467400
2026-03-01 0.812736 0.992182 1.229381 1.580382 2.116063 2.964914 4.584388
2026-03-08 0.788168 0.965074 1.200122 1.550239 2.089341 2.954094 4.634848
2026-03-15 0.769604 0.945622 1.180894 1.534054 2.083552 2.977818 4.755176
2026-03-22 0.762015 0.940892 1.182017 1.547950 2.125918 3.086451 5.059500
2026-03-29 0.749549 0.929068 1.172678 1.545610 2.141739 3.149432 5.276496
2026-04-05 0.743239 0.925547 1.174955 1.560838 2.186853 3.267733 5.629725
2026-04-12 0.731929 0.914728 1.166371 1.558931 2.203175 3.334330 5.876277